Towards Freedom

an independent think tank that analyzes and forecasts the speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society

• Tony Seba, Founder is a world-renowned thought leader, Silicon Valley entrepreneur, educator and author
• James Arbib, Founder is a London-based investor in technology
• Uzair Niazi, Founding Director has over 20 years of high-tech industry experience leading product development teams across the globe
• Adam Dorr, Research Fellow is an environmental social scientist and technology theorist
• Bradd Libby, Research Fellow responsible for our complex systems analysis and modelling
• Taylor Hinds, Research Associate provides support on various projects, with a special focus on disruption within the agriculture sector
• Richard Anderson, Editorial Adviser a journalist and editor for more than 20 years

The Seba Technology Disruption Framework takes a systems approach to analyze the market forces triggered by technology convergence, business model innovation, product innovation, and exponential improvements in both cost and capabilities. It captures the complex processes that drive a pattern of rapid, non- linear change.

How Inaccurate Mainstream LCOE Estimates are Creating a Trillion-Dollar Bubble in Conventional Energy Assets.

100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning.

We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like most disruptions, this one is being driven by the convergence of several key technologies whose costs and capabilities have been improving on consistent and predictable trajectories – namely, solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and lithium-ion battery energy storage. Our analysis shows that 100% clean electricity from the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is both physically possible and economically affordable across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world by 2030. Adoption of SWB is growing exponentially worldwide and disruption is now inevitable because by 2030 they will offer the cheapest electricity option for most regions. Coal, gas, and nuclear power assets will become stranded during the 2020s, and no new investment in these technologies is rational from this point forward.

The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming.

By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt. All other livestock industries will suffer a similar fate, while the knock-on effects for crop farmers and businesses throughout the value chain will be severe. Rethinking Food and Agriculture shows how the modern food disruption, made possible by rapid advances in precision biology and an entirely new model of production we call Food-as-Software, will have profound implications not just for the industrial agriculture industry, but for the wider economy, society, and the environment.

The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries.

By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS). Rethinking Transportation shows how TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions in investor value — but also creating trillions in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

During the 2020s, key technologies will converge to completely disrupt the five foundational sectors that underpin the global economy, and with them every major industry in the world today.

In information, energy, food, transportation, and materials, costs will fall by a 10x or more, while production processes an order of magnitude more efficient will use 90% fewer natural resources with 10x-100x less waste. The knock-on effects for society will be as profound as the extraordinary possibilities that emerge. For the first time in history, we could overcome poverty easily. Access to all our basic needs could become a fundamental human right. But this is just one future outcome. The alternative could see our civilization collapse into a new dark age. Which path we take depends on the choices we make, starting today. The stakes could not be higher.

RethinkX uses the Seba Technology Disruption Framework™ to help analyze and model the disruptions we study.

Developed by Tony Seba, this framework is the result of more than a dozen years of research and teaching on technology disruptions, business model innovation, finance and strategic marketing of high-tech products and innovations at Stanford Continuing Studies, and has been used to understand and anticipate disruptions in several industries.

notes:

• illustrates the framework mechanism through diagrams
• convergence of technologies -> exponential growth -> disruption

this is the action plan from rethink humanity

• a policy factsheet for autonomous, electric, on-demand vehicles
• a policy primer for the coming transportation disruption

• factsheet on autonomous vehicles and end of individual car ownership
• business and investor primer for coming transportation disruption

• Innovation should displace industry incumbents, increase efficiencies, and gain majority market share.

• Innovation Must Meet Three Criteria

  • Experience dramatic cost declines and unleash waves of incremental demand (wright's law: $Y = a X^b$)
  • Cut across sectors and geographies
  • Serve as a platform for additional innovations

• Major Innovation Platforms

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Energy Storage
  • Robotics
  • DNA Sequencing
  • Blockchain Technology

• sustainable investing
• sdg

• how?

  1. Next Generation Internet
  2. DNA Sequencing
  3. Fintech
  4. Robotics & Autonomous Technology

• invest at the pace of innovation

  1. Sole Focus on Disruptive Innovation
  2. Experienced Investment Leadership
  3. Thematic Analysts Organized by Innovation
  4. Transparent and Open Research Ecosystem
  5. Long-Term Investment Time Horizon

1. top-down

   1. Ideation examines from the top-down how the world is changing and where it is headed
   2. Sizing The Opportunity models cost-curves and calculates elasticity of demand to identify entry points

2. bottom-up

   1. Stock Selection And Valuation valuation and revenue model for each company in the portfolio over the next five years
   2. Portfolio And Risk Management monitors the underlying investment thesis of every company weekly
3. open research ecosystem collaborate within particular themes, as well as across themes
4. incorporates Sustainability Intrinsically investment philosophy and process inherently considers ESG principles that align with SDG

ARK believes that innovation is key to growth and will make the world a better place. We seek to invest in companies aligned with this belief, but also to operate our own company in a way that enhances society. To succeed in this mission, ARK implements responsible corporate governance, fosters a diverse and inclusive workforce, and gives back to organizations that we believe are promoting good health and well-being, quality education, and gender equality.

• Active Research Management
• ARK researches across sectors, industries, and markets to gain a deeper understanding of the convergence and market potential of disruptive innovations.
• ARK’s Open Research Ecosystem seeks to capitalize on rapid change through an open approach and the convergence of insights.
• ARK actively engages with Theme Developers as part of our research ecosystem.
• Thematic investing seeks to capitalize on long-term trends that cut across economic sectors and geographic boundaries.
• While benchmarks reflect past successes, thematic investing seeks to capture future growth allowing investors to earn a market premium.
• We research and invest in a wide range of companies, from mega caps to micro caps that we believe are going to contribute to and benefit from the rapidly changing market landscape.
• ARK’s cross-sector portfolios aim to uncover disruptive innovation that impacts multiple industries.
• As a result of extensive and iterative research steps, ARK anticipates and quantifies multi-year value-chain transformations and market opportunities.
• ARK will sell a company if it believes that a disruptor has become disrupted itself, or that it is no longer on the leading edge of fast-moving industries or innovation.
• In fast-moving themes, like those of our strategies, volatility is the foundation of opportunity and potentially higher returns.
• ARK believes the companies it invests in will be prominent in such indices over a full market cycle
• recognize the misunderstood nature of many companies’ fundamentals and look to identify companies that are leaders rather than the largest market capitalization company in a passive index
• If a stock’s share price has fallen in the market due to short-term controversy, ARK tends to increase its position (providing the thesis is unchanged). If a stock is overhyped, ARK will trim the position to take profits.
• ARK suggests a long-term investment horizon of a full investment cycle, or 7+ years.
• artificial intelligence, DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, and blockchain technology are the innovation platforms leading the global economy into what could be the most transformative period in history

• the construction of three-dimensional objects from Computer-Aided Design (CAD) models or other digital 3D design models

• focus areas have emerged in various industries

• largely found its place in prototyping for aerospace, shoes, eyeware, alternative proteins

• ignore the glossy investor decks and dig into the SEC filings to find all the broken promises made over the years
• When 3D printing hit peak popularity in the investment community, the over-the-counter roaches started coming out of the woodwork

• Venture capitalists have been pouring money into 3D printing startups

• there is no designated industry classification for 3D printing stocks
• investigate each company that claims to be involved in 3D printing to make sure they’re not a 3D printing pretender
• If you invested in 3D printing stocks at peak hype, you would have lost a lot of money

• see An Artificial Intelligence Definition for Beginners

• What proprietary data sets are you using to train your algorithms with such that you’ll be able to realize a competitive advantage?

• over 3,500 startups using artificial intelligence to do just about anything you can think of
• Many artificial intelligence startups are seeing success by targeting large industry verticals

• methods which AI algorithms use to understand human speech in written, verbal, and non-verbal forms
• natural language processing includes everything from algorithms that write news articles to interpreting sign language for the deaf using computer vision
• Investing in Natural Language Processing

• industry which is being transformed the most by artificial intelligence right now is healthcare
• Investing in AI Healthcare Companies and Stocks

• a field of research for designing machines with the ability to process, understand, and use visual data just as humans do (dominated by large chinese startups)
• Investing in Computer Vision Companies and Stocks

• there’s a global AI race taking place where every country is competing to build the best AI algorithms
• The Global AI Race – Top AI Startups Around the World

• probably

• The best question to ask a company that claims they’re “doing AI” is what proprietary datasets do they have to train their algorithms that nobody else has?
• How to Invest in AI Stocks in 2021

• Virtual reality is a completely digital environment that you are immersed in.
• Augmented reality is where your view of reality is “augmented” with digital additions.
• In mixed reality, digital objects appear within the natural world.

• VR has labored to find a widespread consumer audience willing to invest in what is still a somewhat awkward technology with limited content
• The smart money is generally headed into business solutions.

• Content may be king, but virtual reality content hasn’t really risen far from jester status yet.
• many item available though questionable at this stage

• while we’re waiting for AR/VR to catch on with consumers, the business world is quietly embracing the technology as a collaboration tool, especially with the ability to view and even manipulate data in three dimensions

• Which, if any, of these companies should you target in your portfolio? Frankly, it’s a crapshoot, with the odds definitely in favor of the house.

• An entire industry has formed around those who want to do malicious things to earn a living
• there are also many cybersecurity stocks for retail investors including ETFs

• The companies that build the best software and wield the best datasets will have a sustainable competitive advantage which adds value over time
• low-code or even no-code technologies that can turn just about anyone into a citizen developer
• Eventually, we’ll build software so well that we won’t need customer support.

• The most exciting computing themes like quantum computing aren’t really investable yet for retail investors.
• Various computing platforms will continue to service various use cases.

• alternative data is often used by traders to generate alpha
• For retail investors, there are ways to invest with fintechs that use alternative data to generate insights and increase returns across various alternative asset classes.

• things to invest in that may have been historically off-limits unless you were an ultra-high-net-worth individual

• Ant Financial which has taken in $22 billion in funding and is now worth – at least the last time we checked – more than Goldman Sachs and Barclays combined, with a valuation of $150 billion

• opportunities for retail investors aren’t so much in buying “fintech stocks” per se, but rather using the various fintech platforms to open up new avenues for investing in alternative asset classes, saving money using free personal finance apps

• The term “green technology” simply refers to ways in which we can use technology to make the world a better place.
• It’s a global problem, and every country needs to address it differently.
• Regardless of where you sit on climate change, we’re all better served if we clean up the planet.
• The problems we need to solve with green technology also provide an opportunity for investors to make profits.

• It’s not all about solar and wind power. Rain, tides, waves, geothermal heat, and biofuels, are all considered sustainable energy sources.

• Less than 1% of the earth’s water is freshwater, and even this amount is unevenly distributed across the planet.
• one in ten people globally lack ready access to clean water
• Urbanization also plays a big role in water scarcity with many large cities facing water stress.

• Most of us rely on a small percentage of the population who grow food for all the rest of us.
• Since land is scarce, we’re having to come up with more creative ways to increase yields on the same footprint.

• Food technology is when we start to play with producing food in ways we hadn’t thought of
• most of the buzz in food tech is mainly around the whole fake meat boom

• Improved battery efficiencies, faster charging times, and an ever-expanding network of charging stations make electric cars appealing to a broader set of potential buyers. guide

• It’s not just about recycling more plastic, it’s about improving the recycling process itself.
• Industrial waste management is not just about plastics. Municipal solid waste (MSW) needs to get sorted first so that garbage plants can get to the recyclable part.

• LEDs can last up to 25 times longer than an ordinary incandescent bulb, and use 75% percent less energy to produce the same amount of light.
• There’s still plenty of innovation still to be found from exciting startups

• When you see a stock soaring for no reason, go to the investment message boards like InvestorsHub and see if it’s being pumped by shills.
• Whatever you do, don’t invest in any stock that doesn’t trade on a major exchange. That’s rule one.

• Green-tech investing goes by a number of names such as sustainable investing, socially responsible investing (SRI), impact investing, environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing
• Just make sure that your money is being put into companies that everyone agrees are sustainable, and make sure you understand what they consider sustainable to be.

a digital twin is when you create a digital representation of something like a machine on a factory floor or even the entire factory

The smart city of tomorrow is one where IoT sensors and big data enable us to create better places for people to live

A smart home is one that minimizes energy use and utility costs while providing a safe and secure location with all the conveniences you’d expect.

• new IoT-enabled medical devices that collect loads of data for AI algorithms to analyze
• multiple startups pursue “Uber for trucking” business models
• In the automotive industry, connected cars now talk to the cloud, and even each other
• Using IoT sensor technology, we’re able to increase yields in agriculture and aquaculture.
• IoT use cases abound in areas such as shoplifting prevention or “free wifi hotspot marketing.”

• Given how thought leaders are predicting that IoT will transform nearly everything around us, you’re probably wanting to “invest in some IoT stocks.”
• There is at least one ETF covering the IoT theme – The Global X Internet of Things ETF (SNSR)
• investing in smart homes, you might consider Alarm.com (ALRM)
• A few members of the ETF have exposure to IoT along with a number of other disruptive technologies.

• IoT is still having some growing pains as we wait for 5G to give us more bandwidth.
• some understandable privacy concerns around IoT technology that haven’t gone unnoticed

• Using genetic sequencing machines, scientists are not only able to read the recipes of life, they’re also able to edit them
• Huge databases of DNA data are now being mined for insights, and scientists are even able to reconstruct composite images of criminals from crime scenes using DNA, something referred to as DNA phenotyping.
• In the future, we’ll have a world where everyone is given personalized medicine tailored to their unique genetic makeup.

• extending the human lifespan by rolling back the effects of aging
• Venture capitalists are pouring money into dozens of startups tackling the aging problem in areas like regenerative medicine or young blood transfusions.

• in the medical industry where connected medical devices allow doctors to monitor patients’ vital signs from afar

• A brain-computer interface might be the Holy Grail for human advancement.

• Plenty of companies are working on removing all the inefficiencies from the process.

• advancements in medical testing could prove to save lives and money

• It’s very difficult to understand some of these businesses without having a medical background, and if you need eight years of training to understand what a company does, it’s probably too complex for retail investors.

• Given the breadth of technologies to be found under life sciences, we often take fleeting looks at companies that are doing cool things without necessarily doing any deep-dives or follow-ups.

• Investing in any of these companies would have proved to be a total disaster. Of course, there are always some exceptions, but why try to walk through landmines to find them?

• Because life sciences is such a broad category, you’ll find it peppered throughout all the twelve categories of disruptive technologies

• the study of anything that measures less than 100 nanometers

• applications for nanotechnology in the healthcare sector are many

• SpaceX appears poised to run away with the global internet race, as it sends thousands of satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO), as part of the Starlink constellation to provide billions of people with connectivity and cute cat videos
• the smart money is that the impact of cheap satellites and launch platforms will give massive undertakings like the SpaceX Starlink constellation the edge

• still pretty hard to get exposure to the “space theme” without ending up with a portfolio filled with either big tech stocks like Amazon or Google or a bunch of companies that make rockets aimed in the wrong direction
• As much as 75% of the NewSpace industry is dominated by the satellite sector, which includes everything from manufacturing spacecraft to providing communications services.

• sector of the satellite industry where we’re seeing both tremendous growth and potential is in geospatial intelligence
• there are a few geospatial intelligence stocks out there
• One of the biggest risks to the satellite industry is the satellite industry … New technologies for space debris removal will become extremely important

• we would expect a high rate of failure in this sector, as there’s still not enough business to justify the numerous rocket startups that have emerged
• China is becoming a serious contender in space with new startups building rockets and satellites

• The moon is home to various precious metals and rare minerals that are integral to our technologies.

• Since then, there have been very few opportunities for the common man or woman to enjoy a romp in zero gravity
• ISS has been floated as a possible tourist destination once the scientific mission there ends
• there’s not much gold to mine in space just yet

• Robotics is becoming increasingly important because the companies using them are gaining a competitive advantage.

• Robotics applications are growing in popularity because of technologies like machine learning that help the robots work more like humans, perhaps handling unexpected exceptions without just ceasing to operate.

• Drones are usually categorized into military, commercial, and consumer segments which neatly cover most of the current use cases.

• industrial robotics is currently the largest application area for robots by far
• industrial robot prices are declining and will continue to do so, which will result in industrial robot sales quadrupling during the next five years as more companies move to adopt them

• Robots are helping in elderly care and the daily operations of smart hospitals. Robotics technology is being used to create bionic limbs and help dental surgeons perform implants.
• the area where healthcare robots really shine is robotic surgery

• first large-scale implementation of consumer robotics was iRobot’s robotic vacuums
• all these types of robots will be made in China

• The problem is that most of these robotics ETFs can’t agree on which companies to include.
• it makes us wonder how the ESG types plan to address robotics as an investment thesis